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Perspective
By Rich Checkan
Last month, we talked about the winds of change.
One month later, gold and silver are pulling back in consolidation after they both made new all-time highs.
Pretty powerful winds… don’t you think?
They are nowhere near done blowing.
Double Standards
Did you ever notice the narrative from the mainstream press when the stock market pulls back?
All the pundits and talking heads are on the same page. Stock market gains are long-term. You need to stay invested. Don’t panic. Keep calm and carry on. It looks bleak, but stick it out and you will be rewarded.
Compare that to what you just heard over the past couple of weeks about gold and silver as they took a breather.
Again, all the pundits and talking heads in the mainstream are on the same page. It was a great run, but it’s over. We told you not to get mixed up in that speculative mania. The bull run is over, get out while you can.
Heck… I read one pundit who wrote to his subscribers in the beginning of October. He said he hoped they followed his advice and bought gold, Bitcoin, or preferably both.
Two weeks later, as gold and silver corrected, he told his subscribers that they should not be in gold… that he had warned them against it all along.
Seriously, I could not make this stuff up.
What Changed?
The first chance I had to speak with our staff after the first leg of the pullback in gold and silver I asked one simple question… “What fundamentally changed?”
I would absolutely believe the bull market was over IF…
- The market had run for 10+ years.
- The gold price was closer to three times the September 2011 high of $1,921.
- The Gold/Silver Ratio (GSR) – the number of ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold - was sitting between 35 and 50 as opposed to between 80 and 85.
- The Dow/Gold Ratio (DGR) – the number of ounces of gold it takes to buy the entire Dow Jones Industrial Average - was at 5 as opposed to 11.9.
- Peace was breaking out all across the globe.
- Social calm was the norm as opposed to the exception domestically.
- Interest rates were 9% or higher.
- The U.S. dollar was strong and strengthening further.
- Everybody was talking about how much money they were making in gold and silver as opposed to declaring an end to the bull market after the first sign of a healthy consolidation.
BUT… none of that is happening. None of those things changed.
All that changed was the price.
That is not the end of the bull market in gold and silver. That is simply what a healthy market does when it has run unabated for a couple of years.
They Simply Do Not Get It
Did I miss a headline? Is the government shutdown over? More importantly, has Congress passed a balanced budget? Or better yet, did they spend less than they collected in revenue?
Unless that happened, gold is going higher.
As long as Congress overspends, the only way to avoid a default of the world’s reserve currency is to create more U.S. dollars out of thin air and put them in circulation.
More dollars in circulation chasing a finite number of goods and services makes each and every dollar worth less. It follows that everything of value will cost more… Everything!
I have been saying this for years. It is the biggest no-brainer in history.
Overspending by Congress equals higher gold prices.
Since this has not changed over the past few weeks, there is no end to gold’s run. Sure, it will pause from time to time. Gold’s price will pull back on profit-taking from time to time.
But the long-term trend will not change.
The best time to buy gold was yesterday. The next best time to buy gold is right now.
You have missed the opportunity to this point. You have not missed the opportunity in gold from here forward.
Buying gold is the best way to protect your future purchasing power… to Keep What’s Yours!
Brian, Alicia, Cristian, and Tamara are ready to help you. Email us or call us toll-free at (800) 831-0007.
OH… and the next time someone tells you that gold is a worthless relic that does not generate interest and dividends, simply remind them that gold has performed better than the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq over the past 25 years by a factor of two to three times.
Who needs interest and dividends when you have gold?
Mark Your Calendars…
Join Adrian Day and me at 7PM EST Wednesday, November 19th as we welcome Brien Lundin for our final On the Move webinar of the year. The webinar is free, but you must register to attend.
Fresh off the 51st New Orleans Investment Conference, we will discuss everything we shared and learned in New Orleans this past week. You do not want to miss this one.
—Rich Checkan
Editor's Note: With a career spanning four decades in the investment markets, Brien Lundin serves as president and CEO of Jefferson Financial, Inc., a highly regarded producer of investment-oriented events and publisher of investment newsletters and special reports. Brien Lundin will be the guest for our next webinar on November 19th. Register here.
Feature
Calm Down
By Brien Lundin
The metals and mining bull market takes a break... but the fundamental drivers remain firmly in place.
 Yes, I know: Never in the history of the human race has anyone who has been told to “calm down”...actually calmed down.
But I’m not writing you now to tell you to chill out about gold’s correction. Or at least not only asking you to calm down about that.
I’m also reporting on the fact that this metals and mining bull market has, in fact, taken a break. And deservedly so.
Our standard three-month of the gold price tells some of the story but, by focusing on that fairly narrow time frame, it accentuates the degree of the current correction. If we pull back to, say, a chart encompassing the entirety of this bull run, as we do on the following page, we see that...well...it’s still a pretty serious move to the downside.
But not surprising. In fact, this decline is actually only the second serious setback that we’ve had in this 19-month-long gold bull market.
It’s instructive to revisit the only other big drop, which occurred shortly after Donald Trump’s election victory nearly a year ago. As the first presidential candidate supported by big crypto money, there was noise post-election that he would move to establish a U.S. crypto reserve in parallel with, or as a replacement to, the U.S. gold reserve.
Gold dropped about 10% in reaction, and gold bugs panicked.
Although hopes remain high among the Bitcoin crowd, the idea of a major, official crypto reserve in competition with gold essentially fizzled out shortly thereafter. And gold stands today, even after the recent selling, about 55% higher than then.
 As I write, gold in this correction is down from recent highs to about the same degree that we experienced a year ago. So should we expect the price to bottom soon and trade 50%-60% higher a year from now?
Frankly, I don’t think so.
Granted, my views aren’t based on any concrete evidence or other indications, it just “feels” to me like we have a bit more to go with this correction. That’s probably due to the violence of the rally since Fed Chairman Jerome Powell acquiesced to a new rate-cutting cycle with his Jackson Hole speech on August 22nd, and the need to purge those excesses.
Looking back over the past couple of months, it’s apparent that Powell’s speech was the starting for the vicious run that ensued as the market priced in a new era of easing. And that rally was driven by the participation of a new, much more fickle, class of participant.
Be Careful What You Ask For
The accompanying chart is an updated version of one I featured in our last issue. As you can see, this bull market has been characterized by four distinct upthrusts, each followed by a period of rangetrading rather than a significant correction.
Even the big drop of a year ago quickly reverted to sideways action, and seems to pale in comparison with the following rally from the beginning of 2025 through May of this year.
Then at the end of the trendline you see the current correction...which pales in comparison to nothing.
This is truly significant.
The root cause of this sharp decline, with was punctuated last Tuesday by a $250, 5%+ nose dive in gold, is the participation of Western investors.
For most of this bull market, it has been central banks driving the bus. That’s why we didn’t experience typical draw-downs, but rather pauses in the ascent of the price line (with the exception of last year’s post-election sell off). But that instance wasn’t as much the case of speculators exiting their bullish trades as it was speculators piling on shorts.
It wasn’t until early August, when the GDX index of mining stocks began to significantly outperform gold itself, that I saw the signs of major participation by the more-speculative Western investors.
We had waited anxiously for Western investors to join the party that the central banks had kicked off...and we were certainly glad for the rocket-shot rally that resulted.
But as Mencken warned, “Be careful what you ask for — you just might get it, good and hard.”
And this time we got it. Western investors come in two flavors: retail and institutional.
At this point in the bull market, and really at any point so far, retail demand in the West has been nonexistent. In fact, transactions have been predominantly selling, as the gold breed of gold bugs ages out and cashes out of their gold and silver holdings.
But on the institutional side, which is much more trading-oriented, the flows into gold really started in early August, as this chart of the GDX mining index/Gold ratio clearly shows.
The overperformance of mining shares that began in August shows how Western investors, seeing how far gold had already run thanks to the relentless central bank buying, chose to enter through the still-undervalued mining stocks.
What’s really interesting is how, even as the value of the GDX soared, we saw significant outflows from the ETF. That tells me that these buyers were very engaged, and we selectively investing in the individual companies rather than merely placing bets on the ETF.
Western investors were also rushing into gold ETFs, as the World Gold Council chart shows.
The underperformance of the mining stocks that began at the beginning of this month also reveals the quick exit of the traders as the gold price began to lose steam.
I have no doubt that next month’s chart will reveal a very significant outflow from global gold ETFs.
Again, we have to take the good with the bad, and that’s what Western participation brings.
There were plenty of other signs that metals and miners had gotten overheated, as I reported over the past few weeks. Gold’s RSI, for example, was well into overbought territory.
Just a couple of weeks of correction, and a violent one at that, has solved that issue.
While we aren’t yet in oversold territory, this is a much better situation than that of the past couple of months.
This isn’t a great timing indicator, as the nearly two months of overbought condition shows, but I feel the RSI needs to drop at least into an oversold condition before we rebound.
I am prepared to be positively surprised, however, as gold has repeatedly made bears look foolish during this bull market.
And if we gaze at the horizon, there are plenty of reasons to think that the newly minted bears are going to look foolish again.
Overblown But Still Under-Owned
In short, like last year’s correction, this one is also based more on an over-heated, speculative rally temporarily running out of steam than anything else.
It’s also notable how the repeated bouts of selling are coming in overnight futures-market trading, with the price at least attempting to rebound in New York trading, where ETF and spot buying feature more prominently.
To me, this shows that traders/specs/”powers that be” are using the thin trading volumes of overnight markets to push the price through sell stops...for profit or purpose.
We should remember that, while the fickle Western speculators may run in and out of the metals and miners, the long-term prospects for this bull market remain bullish...because the fundamental issues driving it remain firmly in place.
Those issues are:
- The necessity of currency depreciation in the face of unmanageable debt loads, and...
- Central banks moving to the safe haven of gold in the face of the above factor, as well as the risk of dollar weaponization.
On that latter point, central bank buying has moderated somewhat this year after the torrid pace of the last two years. While somewhat price insensitive, it seems that even sovereigns try to buy on sale. And if they are dollar-cost averaging, devoting a set amount each month or quarter to gold purchases, then mathematically they are buying less tonnage as the price rises.
Still, as the chart below from the World Gold Council shows, their current level of reserves, even after the tremendous price gains, is still well below historical averages.
Even more compelling, gold’s share of global assets held by private actors is still less than half of previous highs.
With participation still this low, it’s hard to call this a bursting bubble. We are still firmly in inflation mode.
What Now?
As I noted above, I believe we still have some time and depth on this gold correction. And, of course, silver and mining stocks will take their cues from gold.
The time to trim positions in mining equities is largely past, but this is still a good time for portfolio clean up and repositioning. And if you have some cash on the sidelines, new bargains have emerged.
We’re not going to pick the precise bottom of this correction, and I urge you not to try. Instead, as the best opportunities go on sale, take advantage of the opportunities.
Editor's Note: Omar Ayales is the Senior Trading Strategist & Editor at GCRU (Gold Charts R Us). If you have any questions, you can reach him at oayales@adenforecast.com or visit www.goldchartsrus.net.
Hard Stuff
Gold’s Relentless Bull Market And the Up & Coming Rotation in Leadership
By Omar Ayales
The gold bull market that began in late 2015 has now evolved into one of the most dynamic rallies in modern history. From a technical and fundamental perspective, gold has not only broken barriers—it has rewritten them. Over the past year, gold surged through multiple layers of resistance, culminating in new all-time highs near $4400. Silver and the miners followed, with many of the strongest producers and juniors rising sixfold or more in less than a year.
Behind this surge lies a perfect alignment of monetary, fiscal, and geopolitical forces. Global debt has reached unsustainable levels, interest rates—though high nominally—remain low in real terms, and trust in fiat systems continues to erode. Central banks, led by those in emerging markets, have been net buyers of gold for many years, diversifying away from the U.S. dollar as the world gradually transitions toward a multipolar reserve system.
At the same time, fiscal policy in developed economies has shifted permanently toward deficit spending. Governments are no longer fighting inflation through austerity—they are financing it through issuance. The consequence is that the market has entered an era where monetary debasement is structural, not cyclical. That dynamic is the backbone of this gold bull market.
Technically, the precious metals complex has confirmed broad-based strength. The trifecta—gold, silver, and the HUI Index of miners—all broke to new highs earlier in October, validating the long-term bullish structure that had been building for a decade. This year, the miners, traditionally the highest-beta segment of the metals market, have led the way, a hallmark of mid-to-late-stage bull markets.
Still, the pace of ascent has been extraordinary. In under 12 months, select gold equities multiplied sixfold; silver miners doubled or tripled. These gains reflect not just speculation but a repricing of the sector’s profitability as metals prices reset higher. With such velocity, however, comes the natural need for consolidation. As gold approaches a mature phase of its current move, volatility and short-term pullbacks are inevitable—necessary, even—for a sustainable continuation of the longer-term trend.
The Fundamentals Remain Rock Solid
Even if the market takes a breather, the fundamental case for gold remains powerful. Real interest rates, the true opportunity cost of holding gold, are lower across much of the developed world once inflation and debt service are considered. Central-bank buying remains near record levels, while retail and institutional demand continues to expand.
Meanwhile, global macro uncertainty has only deepened. Persistent geopolitical tensions—from Eastern Europe to the South China Sea—have underscored gold’s role as the ultimate hedge against instability. The metal is no longer a contrarian bet; it’s becoming a structural allocation for both sovereign wealth funds and private capital.
That combination of technical momentum and durable fundamentals is why, despite near-term corrections, the broader bull market in gold remains intact.
The Rotation Trade: From Precious Metals to Resources
As powerful as gold’s rally has been, history suggests that once gold leadership matures, a rotation trade tends to follow—one that shifts performance toward industrial and energy commodities. This is already beginning to unfold.
In recent months, copper, uranium, and oil have begun to show early signs of strength, even as gold continues to outshine them all. The relationship between gold and these cyclical commodities is long established: gold tends to lead at the start of an inflationary or monetary-expansion phase, while resources and energy outperform later as capital flows into tangible growth sectors.
My copper-to-gold ratio chart captures this shift in motion. The ratio has collapsed to levels rarely seen in decades, signaling that copper is extremely undervalued relative to gold. Historically, when this ratio reaches such depths, copper embarks on powerful multi-year recoveries, often coinciding with expansions in global manufacturing, infrastructure investment, and electrification trends.
Copper’s story is also fundamentally compelling. The global transition toward renewable energy, electric vehicles, and grid expansion requires unprecedented quantities of copper. Yet, years of underinvestment have left the project pipeline dangerously thin. Supply growth is slowing just as demand accelerates. This imbalance makes copper’s relative undervaluation even more striking—and the eventual upside, potentially enormous.
Energy’s Turn Is Coming
A similar case is unfolding in the gold-to-crude-oil ratio, which now sits at one of its highest readings in forty years. Simply put, oil has never been this cheap relative to gold except during moments of severe economic dislocation—such as the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic collapse.
Crude oil, for all its volatility, remains the cornerstone of global energy supply. Meanwhile, uranium—long neglected—is reemerging as a critical component of the clean-energy transition. Nuclear energy is gaining political and economic support worldwide, with dozens of new reactors under construction. That backdrop points to a broad revaluation across the entire energy complex.
Together, these ratios—copper vs. gold and oil vs. gold—signal an inflection point. While gold consolidates near record highs, industrial and energy commodities are basing at generational lows relative to it. In portfolio terms, that means opportunity: the chance to begin rotating capital from the defensive phase of the cycle (gold and silver) into the productive phase (resources and energy).
Conclusion: The Next Phase of the Commodity Supercycle
Gold’s bull market is far from over—but its leadership is evolving. The forces driving gold higher—monetary excess, fiscal expansion, and declining confidence in fiat systems—are the same forces that will eventually ignite broader resource inflation. The difference is timing.
As gold cools, the smart money will begin positioning for the next leg of the commodity supercycle—led not by safe havens but by the essential materials of growth: copper, uranium, and oil. The charts already show it; the fundamentals confirm it.
In short, gold lit the match. Now, the fire is spreading—and the most explosive gains in the years ahead may belong not to the metal that started it, but to the resources it’s about to pass the torch to.
Editor's Note: Nomi Prins is a best-selling author, financial journalist, and former global investment banker. Prinsights Pulse is a new, free publication that’s curated by Nomi Prins. Designed for everyone from executives at large institutions to individuals seeking to enhance their financial understanding, this powerful newsletter provides essential insights into economic trends that affect us all. This article was originally published on October 7 , 2025. Click here to discover more of Nomi's insights.
The Inside Story
Gold vs AI Bubble: What’s Hiding in Plain Sight
By Nomi Prins
Lately, it’s hard to scroll financial media news without hitting headlines and conversations over whether AI is a bubble in the making.
Just look at some of the headlines we pulled below.
Now, to be clear, generative AI has a high probability of being transformational. But the question is whether investors have taken expectations for AI beyond reality. So, what’s our answer? It is too early to write the story on a technology still largely being developed.
However, one hedge has emerged above nearly all others to combat interim uncertainty. Gold.
Gold has outperformed the MAGS (Index of Top 7 tech companies). It already rallied nearly 50% year-to-date, compared to 20%, trading just under $4000 per ounce. In many ways, gold is hiding in plain sight.
Meanwhile, silver is also shining strong and showing even greater upside – of about 65% year-to-date. The scale of the moves for both gold and even silver invites comparisons to past cycles, 1979, 2011, and 2020. Yet, this time the backdrop is different.
After a brief lull in July, central banks have been buying gold at a record pace, adding 15 net tonnes of global gold reserves in August.
The National Bank of Kazakhstan led the month’s purchases with 8 tonnes. The People’s Bank of China, Central Bank of Uzbekistan, Czech National Bank, Bulgarian National Bank, and Central Bank of Turkey adding 2 tonnes each. The People’s Bank of China extended its 10-month buying streak, pushing total gold holdings past 2,300t, or 7% of international reserves.
Meanwhile, new mine supply is flat, and gold prices are rising even as U.S. 10-year bond yields remain above 4.10%.
Against that backdrop, the MSCI ACWI Select Gold Miners Index has outperformed the MSCI World Semiconductor & Equipment Index (a greater indicator of the AI trend) since December 2024. That divergence is striking.
Miners have quietly delivered stronger returns than the companies supplying AI’s chips, yet most of the market’s attention, and stretched valuations, remain with semiconductors. That math spells opportunity in the gold arena.
Margins That Expand With the Metal
Gold producers are valued on two things: ounces produced and the cost to produce them.
For example, if a mining company’s all-in sustaining costs (or AISC in mining abbreviation-speak) are $1,400 per ounce and gold sells for $3,880 per ounce, each ounce generates about $2,480 of margin. To the extent that costs are relatively fixed, mining revenue scales with bullion. That’s why a 40% move in gold can double or triple mining earnings power.
On the other hand, semiconductor companies are priced on a very different basis. Investors are willing to pay, on average more than 53X earnings per share for leaders like Nvidia. However, for the largest gold miners such as Newmont (NYSE: NEM) and Barrick (NYSE: B), the market pays around 20X.
That contrast highlights how stretched tech valuations are compared to companies whose economics depend on ounces pulled from the ground.
Demand Is Real, Supply Is Finite
The structural supports for gold are visible and measurable. Central banks added more than 400 tonnes of gold during the first half of 2025, led by China, Turkey, and India. Global ETFs, after two years of steady outflows, reversed course, with holdings rising over 150 tonnes year-to-date.
On the supply side, mine output is expected to hit a new record of around 3,600 tonnes annually, with key projects in Mexico, Canada and Ghana leading the increase.
Yet, few large projects are on track to extend supply before 2027. Permitting delays, declining legacy assets, and the geology of new discoveries all keep supply tight. Scarcity is structural.
Meanwhile, every new ounce must be pulled from the ground at rising cost and rising political complexity, making permitted and existing gold projects that much more valuable.
That combination explains why gold and metals like silver have stayed near record highs even as U.S. bond yields remain elevated. The 10-year Treasury yield is still above 4%, a level that in past cycles would have weighed heavily on bullion. Yet official-sector demand and positive ETF flows have provided steady support while mine supply stagnates.
On the supply side, mine output is expected to hit a new record of around 3,600 tonnes annually, with key projects in Mexico, Canada and Ghana leading the increase.
Yet, few large projects are on track to extend supply before 2027. Permitting delays, declining legacy assets, and the geology of new discoveries all keep supply tight. Scarcity is structural.
Meanwhile, every new ounce must be pulled from the ground at rising cost and rising political complexity, making permitted and existing gold projects that much more valuable.
That combination explains why gold and metals like silver have stayed near record highs even as U.S. bond yields remain elevated. The 10-year Treasury yield is still above 4%, a level that in past cycles would have weighed heavily on bullion. Yet official-sector demand and positive ETF flows have provided steady support while mine supply stagnates.
Positioning and the Rotation Risk
The performance gap between miners and semiconductors this year also says something about investor psychology.
As noted above, since December 2024, miners have outperformed chipmakers, but investor positioning tells a different story. Gold miner ETFs such as GDX saw net outflows in 2025, even as they posted triple-digit gains year-to-date. By contrast, bullion-backed ETFs attracted more than $35 billion in new inflows. That imbalance points to vulnerability in portfolio composition.
Concentrated trades eventually give way. When they do, capital seeks assets with durability and cash flow. Miners fit that description today. Yet they remain thinly held outside specialist portfolios. The setup echoes prior cycles, when under-owned commodities drew inflows once the equity trade of the moment began to lose steam.
How to Position Gold in Your Portfolio
There are many ways to put gold, silver and miners to work in a portfolio. For some, that means buying physical metals, including coins, bars, or vaulted purchases with proper accreditation and secure storage. For others, it’s investing in listed products that track bullion with liquidity and ease of rotation.
Then there are the companies that leverage moves in gold and silver into amplified earnings, such as mine developers with projects coming online, or with producers that have the room to expand margins without taking on new cost risk.
That’s why later this week, in our Founders+ monthly issue, we’ll go deeper into one of the rising miners positioned across the precious metals’ spectrum. The publicly traded company is a hidden gem that shows how to capture that leverage as this higher range for hard assets becomes the new normal.
Not a Founders+ reader? Upgrade and join here now!
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