Should you rebalance into precious metals?
July is a useful time to step back and ask a simple question: does your portfolio still reflect the risks and opportunities in front of you?
It's time to take stock.
For many long-term investors, the first half of 2026 has been a reminder that markets can change direction quickly. Gold surged to record highs early in the year, then pulled back sharply by late June. Gold decreased 7% in the first half of 2026 after rallying 64% in 2025. while silver lost 15% in the same period after rising 141% last year.
This kind of volatility may look dramatic on the surface, but that is why a midyear portfolio review may be the right time to consider whether your current allocation in precious metals still matches your financial goals.
Why Rebalance Now?
If equities have become overweight in your portfolio, or if your holdings are concentrated in assets that may be vulnerable to policy surprises, inflation pressure, or market volatility, this may be the time to evaluate whether adding or increasing exposure to precious metals makes sense.
Physical gold and silver have long been used as diversifiers because precious metals tend to respond differently to market stimulus than many conventional financial assets. In uncertain environments, that difference can matter.
Alternatively, if you took gold and silver at all-time highs as an opportunity to take profit and sell precious metals, it may be time to dive back in. A steep pullback is providing another opportunity to ride the bull market wave. From the highs, gold is down roughly 25% while silver dropped nearly 50%.
The "summer doldrums", that period where financial markets tend to lull over the summer months, is where investors find themselves today. As spot prices soften and market activity slows, further dips in this period allow buyers to accumulate at an advantage before seasonal autumn rallies begin.
The Pullback May Be the Real Story
Some investors see the spot price decline and assume the opportunity has passed. Others recognize that pullbacks can create a more disciplined entry point.
The World Gold Council's Mid-Year Outlook report noted that although gold fell from its January highs, a drop of more than 10% from current levels would likely be tempered by bargain-hunting demand. In other words, long-term buyers have historically stepped in when prices become more attractive, so if current levels around $4,000 aren't the bottom of this pullback, they are very close to it.
The report also suggests that gold could resume its upward trend around $4,500 an oz. before year's end, and a strong, clear catalyst could even push it sustainably back towards $5,000.
That does not guarantee any specific outcome. And there's still a question of when. But it does support a strategy many experienced investors already understand: average in during periods of weakness instead of waiting for perfect timing.
A midyear rebalance can be a practical way to do that. Rather than making an all-or-nothing move, investors can review exposure, align their metal mix with overall objectives, and gradually build or restore a position in hard assets.
Will Precious Metals Go Higher in 2026?
Several factors could shape a positive trend for precious metals through year-end:
- renewed geopolitical shocks
- weaker economic conditions
- lower interest-rate expectations
- continued central bank gold demand
- policy changes in key global markets
Meanwhile, possible headwinds could include resilient economic growth, rising yields, and calmer markets.
Why Gold Could Shine Later in the Year
Fall will likely see precious metals break out of rangebound trading.
September is historically one of the strongest months of the year for gold prices, especially as jewelry demand picks up in preparation for heavy consumer buying seasons, such as Diwali and the Hindu wedding season in India, followed by Christmas and the Chinese New Year. September also historically sees higher stock market volatility as traders jump back into the markets, leading investors to seek safe-haven assets and hedge their portfolios against risk with hard assets.
As an example, in September 2025, gold experienced its fastest price surge in 14 years. Prices climbed from an opening of $3,508.50 to an end-of-month high of $3,855.20 per ounce, representing remarkable monthly growth driven by a weakening U.S. dollar, dropping interest rates, and mounting global financial uncertainties. This spectacular rally ultimately helped to push gold over the historic $4,000 per ounce milestone last October, and continued to drive prices upwards from there.
Heading into the second half of the year, the market has also been focusing on the potential implications of the November 2026 U.S. midterm elections, which are shaping up to be closely contested. For gold, the link between U.S. elections and price performance is somewhat mixed, but this midterm cycle could have tangible implications for the balance of power, potentially increasing policy uncertainty and supporting demand for gold as a hedge in the second half of 2026.
According to the World Gold Council’s midyear outlook for 2026, overall gold remains closely tied to a global backdrop that includes moderate growth, cooling but still elevated inflation, and expectations for the Federal Reserve potentially tightening monetary policy in response. Yet, there is potential for a breakout if economic conditions worsen, geopolitical risk returns, or investors in greater numbers step in to buy the pullback.
Central bank gold buying also continues to be a major contributor and key surveys suggest that banks will continue to be consistent net buyers this year. The positive effect of central bank gold buying comes not only from the large tonnage purchases themselves, but also from the positive signal it sends to investors.
For investors, that creates an important takeaway: even after a volatile first half, the case for holding gold as part of a diverse portfolio has not disappeared.
Most importantly, it makes sense to act NOW while it's still possible to capture market advantage with lower spot prices.
Questions to Ask in Your Midyear Review
If you are considering whether to rebalance into precious metals, start with a few practical questions:
Has my portfolio become too concentrated in equities or paper-based assets?
Do I have enough diversification to help hedge against inflation and geopolitical uncertainty?
Does my current allocation reflect my time horizon and risk tolerance?
Would adding physical gold and/or silver help strengthen my portfolio’s resilience?
Should I buy incrementally instead of making a large shift all at once?
These are not abstract questions. They go directly to fiduciary responsibility, portfolio construction, and preserving purchasing power in a changing market environment.
A Disciplined Approach Still Matters Most
Rebalancing your portfolio should be practical, not emotional.
If your portfolio has drifted away from your original allocation, or if the risks in today’s market feel greater than they did six months ago, this may be the right time to revisit the role of precious metals.
Investors do not need to assume that gold and silver will move straight up from here to see their value. They need to decide whether precious metals still deserve a place in a strategy built for diversification, long-term stability, and protection against the unexpected.
For most, the answer should be yes.
The first half of 2026 showed just how quickly market conditions can shift. A midyear review gives investors a chance to respond with discipline.
Gold and silver’s recent pullback does not necessarily weaken the case for ownership. It simply gives long-term investors another opportunity to evaluate position size, diversify intentionally, and Keep What’s Yours.
If you would like help reviewing options for buying physical bullion, a self-directed Precious Metals IRA, or secure storage strategies, ASI can help you evaluate the right fit for your financial goals. Call us at 1-800-831-0007 for your free, no pressure consultation.