---
title: Information Line - November 2026
description: This monthly commentary on metals and the markets features insights from Chuck Butler, Frank Holmes, Bill Bonner, and Rich Checkan in November 2026.
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---

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 Nov 5, 2026, 8:00:00 AM

# Information Line - November 2026

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| Perspective By Rich Checkan *During the 1992 presidential campaign, James Carville, a political strategist for President Bill Clinton, coined the phrase, “It’s the economy stupid.”* *Oftentimes, a strong economy will give the party in power an edge during an election. Conversely, discontent with the economy oftentimes leads to a change of regimes in an election.* *Tuesday night, discontent with the economy led to the House of Representatives and the Senate flipping from Republican control to Democratic control.* *But… will anything change?* ***History Says… “No”*** *If there is one thing that both political parties are good at, it is destroying the purchasing power of your dollars. Although they both tend to spend our money on different priorities, they both spend more than they collect in revenue.* *They get elected by promising things to their political bases. And if they want to last more than one term, they need to deliver on those promises… whether they can afford them or not.* *This overspending is financed through an expansion of the money supply… by creating currency backed by nothing material.* *As a result, every dollar in circulation becomes worth less. It becomes watered down.* *This is what led to gold’s “appreciation” since President Richard Nixon broke the tie between the U.S. dollar and gold in August of 1971. With convertibility ended, there was no longer any restraint on Congress. There was no longer any incentive to balance the budget.* *Since then, the U.S. dollar has lost 96% of its purchasing power.* *And the trend will continue.* *Virtually nobody from either party has talked about bringing the debt under control. And nobody has taken any meaningful action to do so.* *Politicians will overspend. The debt will grow. We will finance it by printing more dollars. Price inflation of everything necessarily follows.* ***The Long and Short of It*** *Last week, we saw gold and silver sell-off.* *Gold dipped below $3,900 per ounce. Silver dipped below $50 per ounce.* *That sell-off was a direct result of the sell-off in the stock market.* *We have seen this scenario play out more often than you could imagine.* *Equities get sold. The sell-off triggers margin calls in leveraged investment portfolios. Faced with the margin calls, investors sell the most liquid investments they can put their hands on… gold and silver.* *This creates an opportunity for bargain hunters. They swoop in and buy gold and silver because they are now cheaper than they ought to be.* *That is the short of it.* *The long of it is what you see when you zoom out on the gold price. When you look at the long-term chart for gold, last week’s sell-off is barely even discernible.* *Long-term, gold goes higher as we measure it in U.S. dollars mismanaged by fiscally irresponsible politicians.* ***Now, Things Should Start Moving*** *In our conversations leading up to these mid-term elections, a common theme was “wait and see.” Investors wanted to see the results before taking action.* *Personally, I never saw the value in that approach.* *I was – and still am – so convinced that nothing changes regardless of which party is in control. Again, the priorities shift, but the overspending does not change one iota.* *From the perspective of fiscal responsibility, absolutely nothing changes.* *But now that the election is decided – for the most part – we can put this behind us and focus on our portfolios.* *I fully expect that to happen now.* *Gold and silver should resume their upward trends.* *And buying well on the recent dips remains the very best way I know to protect your purchasing power… to **Keep What’s Yours!*** *As you are ready, we stand ready to serve you. Call us toll-free at (800) 831-0007, or [**send us an email**](mailto:infoasi@assetstrategies.com). —Rich Checkan* --- Editor's Note:  Chuck Butler, based in St. Louis, MO, US, is currently the Creator and Editor of: A Pfennig For Your Thoughts. [Sign up here to get updated from the Daily Pfennig](https://dailypfennig.com/). Feature The 10-Year Yield is Not Done Rising! By Chuck Butler Well, where do I start? That's the question I asked Rich when he asked me to write an article for *Information Line*... I decided to take on the rise in bond yields. This isn’t just a U.S. story; higher bond yields have rattled markets around the globe. But since we live in the good old U.S.A., I’ll concentrate on yields here at home. First of all, I need to talk about why the 10-year Treasury yield has gotten the meat of discussion. You see, the 10-year is used to price things like mortgage rates. If the 10-year is 5%, mortgage rates will be 7-7.5%. So, you can see why we use the 10-year as the example of bond yields when talking about bonds. Another thing to make sure that you understand is that bond yields and prices move in opposite directions. As yields go up, bond prices go down, and vice versa. OK, now that we’ve gotten those basics out of the way, the 10-year yield recently reached 5.35% before settling back to around 5.20%. This means that everyone who bought the 10-year for their respective portfolios may now face a loss in the bond should they decide to sell it before it matures. Of course, if the holder of the bond holds it until maturity, they will get their full refund. This is not a new revelation; the bond has seen its yield rise since July 2020. During COVID, the bond hit a low of .628%... Can you believe that? A 10-year Treasury yielding just 0.628%! In my view, two developments have sounded alarm bells for Treasury investors since then. The first came after Russia invaded Ukraine and the U.S. and its allies froze Russian assets under their jurisdictions. Whatever the political rationale, the message to other countries was clear: “If they did that to Russia, what would stop them from doing it to us?” My concern is that this encouraged some foreign holders to let their Treasuries mature without reinvesting the proceeds. The second alarm bell came when U.S. debt surpassed $40 trillion. This scared the bejeebers out of holders of Treasuries, and they began to sell them. I don't understand why they suddenly got scared. This debt has been building for decades, and I’ve been chronicling the problem for the past 20 years. But I digress. Since the start of 2026, the U.S. debt has grown from $37 trillion to over $40 trillion. In the past, the yields would rise when the U.S. was growing exponentially with economic growth. But this time the yield is rising because of two things... The first thing is that the "Bond Boys" that control the bond business didn't think that the Federal Reserve was serious about fighting inflation. With the “Fed Heads” holding off on further rate increases, investors demanded higher yields. The second thing is —and this is important, folks—the risk of owning a 10-year bond from a country that is projected to reach $50 trillion of debt within a few years. The 10-year is being used as the main investment of a country that no one wants to deal with now. The second bell-ringer came when the U.S. current debt surpassed $40 trillion... This scared the bejeebers out of holders of Treasuries, and they began to sell them... I don't understand why they suddenly got scared, for this debt has been building for the last 20 years... I have been chronicling the U.S.'s debt problem for the last 20 years... But I digress... Since 2026 the U.S. debt has grown from $37 trillion to over $40 trillion, on this news that the U.S. debt had grown to hit $40 trillion... In the past, the yields would rise when the U.S. was growing exponentially with economic growth, but this time the yield is rising because of 2 things... The first thing is that the bond boys that control bond business didn't think that the Federal Reserve was serious about fighting inflation, as with the Fed Heads not raising interest rates the bond boys raised the yield... The second thing is, and this is important folks... That the risk of owning a 10-year bond of a country that is scheduled to reach $50 Trillion of debt within a few years.. The 10-year is being used as the main investment of a country that no one wants to deal with now... So, we’ve discussed why the 10-year yield is rising or has risen. I personally feel that it’s not finished rising! You see, since we’ve built up the debt until it’s to our eyeballs, and the rest of the world has stopped attending the auctions for our debt, there’s no other place that the 10-year yield could go. The last thing that bothers me is that the bond servicing (interest on the bonds with the higher yield) is becoming a major part of the country’s budget. Last year, we spent $1.25 trillion on interest payments, accounting for about 19% of total federal spending and making interest the second-largest budget item behind Social Security. We as a country can’t go on like this forever. But one asset I believe could benefit from this scenario is gold. Got Gold? --- *Editor's Note:  Frank Holmes is the CEO of [U.S. Global Investors](https://www.usfunds.com/)—a company that produces quality analysis concerning gold, precious metals, natural resources, and emerging markets—in conjunction with his work as a fund manager. Frank is a long-time friend of ours, and we've chosen to share his article [originally published October 16, 2026](https://www.usfunds.com/resource/gold-stumbled-in-september-but-gold-miners-beat-every-sector-in-the-sp-500/). For more articles like this from Frank and other leading experts, you can [subscribe to the U.S. Global Investors newsletter here](https://www.usfunds.com/).* Hard Stuff Gold Stumbled in September, but Gold Miners Beat Every Sector in the S&P 500 By Frank Holmes ![Gold-Stumbled-in-September](https://blog.assetstrategies.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Gold-Stumbled-in-September.jpg?width=600&height=300&name=Gold-Stumbled-in-September.jpg) If you only looked at the price of gold in September, you’d be forgiven for believing the bull market had run out of steam. The yellow metal fell 6.3% during the month, and some in the financial press were quick to say it had failed as a safe haven. I’ve spent my entire professional life in gold and gold mining stocks, and I can tell you that one bad month rarely tells the whole story. When you look at the full third quarter, a very different picture emerges. Gold mining stocks, as measured by the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index, delivered a total return of 17.4% in the three months ended September 30. That was enough to beat every single sector in the S&P 500, including energy, which rode higher oil prices to a 17.2% gain. The S&P 500 itself returned just 2.3% in Q3. ![COMM-gold-miners-sp500-10022026](https://blog.assetstrategies.com/hs-fs/hubfs/COMM-gold-miners-sp500-10022026.png?width=600&height=600&name=COMM-gold-miners-sp500-10022026.png) The Bond Market Took Center Stage September was all about interest rates. On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised rates for the first time in more than three years and signaled more hikes could follow. Two days earlier, the 10-year Treasury yield crossed 5% for only the second time since the 2008 financial crisis. This wasn’t just an American story. Bond yields climbed around the world. In the U.K., the 30-year government bond yield topped 6% this week, its highest level since 1998. As we all know, gold doesn’t pay interest. When you can earn close to 5% on a two-year Treasury note, the cost of holding a metal that pays nothing goes up. The number that matters most is called the real yield. That’s what a 10-year Treasury pays you after inflation. It closed September at 2.93%, its highest level since November 2008, jumping about half a percentage point in September alone and a full point since the start of the year. The U.S. Dollar Index, meanwhile, rose more than 2% in September. Since gold is priced in dollars, a stronger greenback makes it more expensive for buyers overseas. Put it all together, and you have a recipe for a tough month. September has historically been gold’s weakest month of the year, and this one was worse than any September in the past decade. Gold Has Been Here Before The Wall Street textbook says gold falls when real yields rise. Sometimes it does. In 2013, real yields jumped about 1.5 percentage points and gold lost 28%, one of its worst years in decades. But the rule is far from ironclad. From 2005 through 2007, real yields hovered between 2% and nearly 3%, right around where they are today, and gold nearly doubled. In 2022, real yields swung from deeply negative to positive, a move of more than 2.5 percentage points, and gold finished the year essentially flat. Then it went on one of the greatest runs in its history while yields stayed high. ![COMM-gold-high-10022026](https://blog.assetstrategies.com/hs-fs/hubfs/COMM-gold-high-10022026.png?width=600&height=600&name=COMM-gold-high-10022026.png) What separates those periods? Who’s doing the buying. In 2013, Western investors were dumping gold. Today, the biggest buyers are holding firm and adding more. That helps explain why gold is down only 3.7% so far this year despite a full percentage point increase in real yields. The Love Trade Didn’t Miss a Beat Loyal readers know I’ve long said that gold is driven by two forces, the Fear Trade and the Love Trade. The Fear Trade is investors reacting to inflation, interest rates and government policy. The Love Trade is the cultural buying of gold as gifts and savings, especially in China and India. The Fear Trade had a rough September. The Love Trade, along with central bank buying, kept right on going. China’s central bank added more than 20 tonnes of gold in August, its biggest monthly purchase since 2023. That stretched its buying streak to 22 straight months. China also imported a record 1,141 tonnes of gold in the first eight months of the year, already more than in all of 2025. Poland keeps buying, and South Korea’s central bank plans to buy gold in December for the first time since 2013. Why are governments doing this? Reserve security. After watching Russia’s reserves get frozen in 2022, many nations want an asset that another government can’t seize with the stroke of a pen. The timing is also worth noting. This week marks China’s Golden Week holiday, which traditionally kicks off the country’s peak gold buying season. Investors Bought the Dip It’s not just central banks. Everyday investors who buy gold through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) held their ground too. For most of the past year, the amount of gold held by ETFs moved right in step with the price. Then, in late August, the two went their separate ways. The gold price slipped from around $4,650 an ounce to $4,157, but ETF holdings kept climbing to about 100.9 million ounces, matching their highest level of the past year. ![COMM-gold-dip-10022026](https://blog.assetstrategies.com/hs-fs/hubfs/COMM-gold-dip-10022026.png?width=600&height=600&name=COMM-gold-dip-10022026.png) U.S.-listed gold ETFs took in $3.8 billion in September, following $7.9 billion in August. When prices fall and investors keep buying, that tells me conviction is still strong. Gold Stocks Are Still Overlooked Brings me back to gold miners. Their strong quarter wasn’t’ a one-off. Over the past five years, the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index has returned about 240%, compared with about 137% for the price of gold itself. Even so, most investors still aren’t paying attention. Mining stocks make up roughly 2% of global stock markets, their smallest share in 55 years. The 50 largest gold miners in the world, combined, are worth less than Nvidia alone. That’s hard to square with the fundamentals. Free cash flow per share for miners has grown tenfold since 2020, and the sector’s earnings yield of about 12% is the highest of any sector, according to Jeff Clark of Paydirt Prospector. Put simply, these companies are making a lot of money relative to what investors are paying for them. The industry’s own insiders seem to agree. Large miners are bidding for one another again, including a $27 billion offer for Northern Star that was rejected this week as too low. Meanwhile, the broader stock market is near record highs and leaning heavily on a handful of giant tech names. JPMorgan recently reminded investors that owning an index fund isn’t the same as being diversified. I couldn’t agree more. Don’t Let One Bad Month Discourage You The bond market will stay in the driver’s seat for now. The good news is that inflation came in cooler than expected in August, and traders have scaled back their bets on another Fed hike in October. I’ll be watching the jobs report and the Fed’s tone closely. The calendar also turns more friendly from here. Over the past decade, gold has averaged a gain of about 1.6% in October, and December and January have been its two strongest months. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, of course, but it lines up with the Love Trade buying season now underway. Gold has had a volatile year, and I expected more swings ahead. That’s exactly why I’ve always recommended a 10% weighting in gold, with 5% in physical gold and 5% in high-quality gold mining stocks, rebalanced regularly. Don’t let one tough month shake you out of a position that’s built for the long haul. --- *Editor's Note:  Bill Bonner is the Founder of Bonner Private Research and owner of the Agora Companies. This article was originally published by Bonner Private Research on October 26, 2026. You can subscribe to Bonner Private Research here (save 62% on an annual subscription [with this link](https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/ASIonly)).*  The Inside Story The Debt Controls the Fed By Bill Bonner *“If he loses, I’m f----ed...how long do you think my prison sentence is going to be?”* *—Elon Musk* The betting markets are forecasting a Democratic sweep in November. Assuming they are right, so what? One of the effects could be a constitutional crisis...leading to who-knows-where. The voting results could be tainted by fraud or loud accusations of diddling the ballot counts. Newly elected representatives could be told to cool their heels until the alleged election interference is investigated. But who will do the investigating? Well, Congress...including the members the voters just turned out. Truth Out: Poll: 7 in 10 Americans Doubt Trump Will Accept Midterm Results *The president has said that he will only accept the results of the midterms if he deems them to be “honest.”* Consensual democracies only work when people trust their opponents to play fair. But when they think the other side is not just ‘wrong,’ but ‘evil,’ a whole new dynamic is set in motion. People of good faith tolerate the opinions and policies of other people of good faith. But they won’t make a deal with the devil. If you’re up against the Wicked One, you should do all you can to stop him; at least, that’s how the thinking goes. And it was just that kind of thinking — *similar to what happened in America in the 1850s, and many ‘revolutions’ gone sour* — that gets resolved, as Mao put it, *“out of the barrel of a gun.”* So what happens if Trump refuses to accept the verdict of the elections? Democrats would rush to the Supreme Court for judgement. But by that time, it wouldn’t be at all surprising if the rabble were already in the streets...setting fires...running out through smashed windows with armloads of loot. Maybe New York or Los Angeles would look a bit like Paris. It probably wouldn’t last too long; America’s gendarmes are nowhere near as restrained as those in France. And Republicans control the guns – at least, most of them. But even if the Supreme Court rules against him, Trump — *facing hostile investigations in a hostile Congress* — may decide to ignore the court. This may not be as villainous as it sounds. A lot of money is at stake. It wouldn’t be too surprising if one side or the other resorted to some hanky-panky to get at it. Holding things in abeyance while they get to the bottom of it may seem not only justified, but essential to an honest Republic. *Financial Times*: *Donald Trump moves to block certification of Alaska Senate result if Republican loses. Candidates’ similar names could ‘taint’ the result, argues US Justice Department* People don’t intend to have a ‘civil’ war. They don’t set out to have hyperinflation, either. Like prudent drivers, they make logical, reasonable choices — *carefully staying below the legal limit* — and then, screech...the car is sliding sideways on the gravel. In the chaos and bloodshed following a contested election, most Americans would welcome a strong leader...one who would insist on law and order, first and foremost. “*Elections can wait until order is restored*,” he would say. Many people, alarmed by the lawlessness, would nod in agreement. Possible? Certainly. Probable? Who knows? And then, even if the transition to a ‘blue’ Congress happens peacefully, what then? *Washington Post:* As Republicans brace for election losses, Musk prepares for war *A host of Democrats have said they are eager to wield the power of their office to investigate the tech titan and his ventures should they win either chamber in the midterms.* The newly-seated, bright-eyed and bushy-tailed representatives, eager to get on nationwide TV, will use the Congressional subpoena — against Trump, the Trump family, its associates...its deals...and its backers. The biggest and boldest of them has already said that he won’t go gently into that good night. “*Those who pick fights with me should understand that I will find out who is really pulling the strings and come for them, not just their puppets*,” said the world’s richest man. “*There is a large graveyard filled with my enemies*,” he once posted. One of the few amusing things about this election is that both parties are running on false pretenses. The Republicans claim this is a ‘Golden Age’ for the US economy. But inflation just completed its 67th consecutive month above the Fed’s 2% target. And for the last six months, real wages have been falling. The Trump Team collected $5.4 trillion in taxes in FY 2026. But it spent $7.4 trillion. What did they think was going to happen? The national debt rose over $40 trillion. Trump and Biden, together, added half of the total just in the last ten years. And now, the Fed can no longer control the debt. Instead, the debt controls the Fed...which is forced to raise rates to avoid more inflation and higher interest charges. Democratic candidates, meanwhile, claim they will slay the ‘affordability’ dragon. But they, along with their Republican colleagues, created the monster. They joined Republicans to support both military and non-discretionary domestic budgets — with bi-partisan support for every foolish boondoggle that came down the pike. And now, yes, Democrats are licking their lips and rubbing their hands. They hope to regain power in Washington. But not one of them has come up with a reasonable plan to reduce deficits or protect the dollar. We have no idea how this election will shake out. But there’s already a whole lot of shakin’ going on. And in the coming financial storm, rocking the boat even more is sure to be disastrous. Democrat? Republican? Either way, we’re ‘*f----d*.’ |
| --- |

 

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