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Perspective Last week Friday, gold tumbled 10% and silver dove 35%. And… if you are not subscribed already, I suggest you subscribe with Dennis Miller and Chuck Butler… We have known Chuck since we were trading currencies with him at Mark Twain Bank thirty years ago. His Daily Pfennig newsletter is mandatory reading here at ASI. He packs a lot of useful information and insights into a quick read a few times a week. We have known Dennis just about as long as we have known Chuck. Dennis’ Miller On the Money started out because he realized his bank account was suffering because he was following the advice of Wall Street and was trusting fictitious government statistics. Dennis’ weekly newsletter provides common sense analysis of the markets that you can put directly to use with your own financial portfolio. His newsletter, like Chuck’s, is free. But I strongly urge you to make a small donation to ensure Dennis is around and sharing his insights well into the future. Like us, Chuck and Dennis have gotten this precious metal market right for decades. They are people you should be reading.
Last Friday, which of these fundamental indicators changed? Editor's Note: Nick Giambruno is a renowned speculator and international investor. We've chosen to share his recent article from International Man, originally published January 27, 2026. For more articles like this from Nick and other leading experts, you can subscribe to Doug Casey's International Man here. Feature The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is one of the clearest windows into how the average American actually feels about the economy. Each month, the university surveys households across the country, asking straightforward questions about personal finances, job prospects, inflation, and expectations for the future. Those responses are distilled into a single number that captures the public’s economic mood. Because it has been tracked for decades, the index offers a long-running reality check on confidence at the household level. Today, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is sitting near record lows — decisively below levels seen during the 2008 financial crisis, the dot-com bust, and even the deep recessions of the early 1990s and 1980s. How can stock market valuations be at or near historical highs while the average American is about as pessimistic as they’ve ever been? This contradiction is a perfect illustration of the financial fun house — and the extreme distortions that relentless money printing has pumped into the system. If fiat currency is a dishonest measuring stick — and it is — then how do we accurately measure the stock market? The best option is to measure value in gold, honest money that no politician can arbitrarily debase. If measuring in fiat is like looking into a fun house mirror, then gold is a mirror of truth. And when we measure the stock market in gold, that truth becomes clear. Below is a chart of the S&P 500 measured in gold going back to 1950. Viewed through the lens of gold, the stock market tells a very different story than it does in fiat terms — and this chart makes that unmistakably clear. The most striking feature of the chart is what isn’t there: a sustained upward trend. The S&P 500 today is worth the same amount of gold it was in 1995. Despite decades of nominal gains, the stock market has repeatedly given back those gains when measured against gold. In other words, the rising stock market was more a reflection of currency debasement than of real wealth creation. This helps explain the disconnect at the heart of today’s market. In fiat terms, stock prices appear to be at record highs. But in gold terms — a unit that cannot be printed — the market looks far less extraordinary. Measured in gold, US stocks peaked in 1999, when the S&P 500 was worth just over 164 grams of gold. Today, the index is worth 43 grams — a decline of more than 73% from its 1999 peak. More recently, the S&P 500 peaked at about 82 grams of gold in late 2021. Today, it’s worth roughly 43 grams. In other words, despite the recent melt-up and the stock market ripping to new nominal all-time highs, when measured in gold, the S&P 500 is down more than 47% since late 2021 and sitting at roughly the same level it was in 1995. In other words, when we look at the stock market through a mirror of truth rather than a fun house mirror, it becomes clear that it is in a deep bear market. It’s no wonder consumer sentiment is near an all-time low. Despite the nominal melt-up in stocks, most Americans are becoming poorer when measured in real, honest money — not fake government confetti. I expect this dynamic — a nominal stock market melt-up alongside Americans becoming poorer — to accelerate in 2026. I expect the stock market to go higher and valuations to become even more insane — but I expect gold to rise even faster. Currency debasement is driving this trend, and unfortunately, all signs point to much more of it in 2026. This is why the coming phase of this melt-up is so dangerous. Rising stock prices will give the illusion of prosperity, even as the dollar continues to lose purchasing power and real wealth quietly erodes. Most investors will focus on nominal gains and miss what’s actually happening beneath the surface — until it’s too late to respond calmly or intelligently. To help you see what’s coming before the cracks widen, I’ve prepared a free PDF special report that lays out the larger forces now converging on the financial system. The Most Dangerous Economic Crisis in 100 Years… the Top 3 Strategies You Need Right Now explains the economic, political, and cultural trends driving this moment, what they mean for your money and personal freedom, and the specific strategies you can use now to protect yourself as this cycle accelerates. You can get this free PDF report by clicking here and getting access while the window to prepare is still open. Editor's Note: Omar Ayales is the Senior Trading Strategist & Editor at GCRU (Gold Charts R Us). If you have any questions, you can reach him at oayales@adenforecast.com or visit www.goldchartsrus.net. Hard Stuff If you step back and look at the bigger picture, most major moves in gold, silver, copper, and crude oil can be traced back to one underlying driver: the U.S. dollar index. Think of it this way: commodities don’t trade in isolation — they trade against the dollar. When the dollar rises, commodities struggle. When the dollar weakens, commodities tend to rally. That relationship has shaped nearly every bull and bear cycle in metals over the past several decades, and it remains just as relevant today. Gold, silver, copper, oil — all of them. So when the U.S. Dollar Index strengthens, it effectively makes those commodities more expensive for the rest of the world. Foreign buyers need more local currency to purchase the same ounce of gold or barrel of oil. Demand cools. Prices stall. But when the dollar weakens, the opposite happens. Commodities become cheaper globally. Demand improves. Capital flows back into hard assets. Prices rise. It’s not speculation — it’s simple math. This is why you so often see:
The biggest is interest rates. When the Federal Reserve raises rates, global capital flows into U.S. bonds to capture higher yields. More demand for dollars means a stronger currency. When rates fall, that capital advantage shrinks. Money looks elsewhere. The dollar softens. That’s why rate-cut cycles tend to favor commodities and precious metals. If we move into a lower-rate environment in 2026 — as many expect — it would naturally create downside pressure on the dollar and provide a tailwind for gold, silver, and resources. Trade dynamics also matter. A persistently strong dollar makes U.S. exports less competitive overseas. A weaker dollar helps rebalance trade by making American goods cheaper globally. And then there’s reserve demand. For decades, foreign governments and central banks have held large amounts of U.S. dollars and U.S. Treasuries. When those holdings grow, the dollar strengthens. When diversification away from dollar assets occurs, the currency softens. Recently, we’ve seen signs of this gradual diversification, which adds another layer of pressure on the dollar over time. The Donald Trump administration has repeatedly emphasized trade competitiveness and domestic production. A softer dollar supports those goals by helping exports and encouraging onshore manufacturing. If global funds and central banks slowly reduce reliance on the dollar, that naturally cheapens the currency — and historically, that environment has been bullish for commodities across the board. Gold, silver, copper, and oil tend to thrive when the dollar is under pressure. Gold and silver are not just commodities — they are also monetary assets. When confidence in paper currencies fades or the dollar weakens, investors often rotate toward hard assets. But we also need to stay grounded. Gold and silver have already risen sharply. After big, fast advances, volatility increases. Even in strong bull markets, corrections can be sudden and deep. If you’ve been heavily invested and sitting on meaningful gains, trimming some exposure and protecting profits isn’t bearish — it’s smart risk management. At the same time, we’re seeing leadership broaden. Industrial metals like copper are quietly strengthening. Energy shares are improving. Crude oil is showing signs of life. These sectors, particularly the crude oil sector, have lagged for years and are now beginning to attract capital. That rotation is healthy. It suggests that the bull market is expanding rather than ending. If the dollar weakens, commodities likely benefit. If rates fall, hard assets gain support. If global capital diversifies away from dollar holdings, metals and energy strengthen. But strong markets still require discipline. Take profits when positions get extended. Raise some cash. Rotate into sectors that are just beginning to move. Because the goal isn’t simply to ride a bull market — it’s to navigate it wisely. Right now, the wind still favors precious metals and resources. Just make sure you’re sailing with a plan, not just enthusiasm. Editor's Note: Frank Holmes is the CEO of U.S. Global Investors —a company that produces quality analysis concerning gold, precious metals, natural resources, and emerging markets—in conjunction with his work as a fund manager. Frank is a long-time friend of ours, and we've chosen to share his article originally published January 23, 2026. For more articles like this from Frank and other leading experts, you can subscribe to the U.S. Global Investors newsletter here. The Inside Story The Bank of Japan’s recent policy shift is sending shockwaves through global markets. Many analysts are making some bold forecasts. Goldmans Sachs just raised its year-end gold price target to $5,400 an ounce, citing strong demand from both institutional and retail buyers. The London Bullion Market Association’s (LBMA) most recent survey reported bullish forecasts as high as $7,150.
And speaking of the dollar, there’s a growing crisis of confidence in fiat currencies and central banks, especially the Fed. More on that later. To my knowledge, this is the first time a sitting Fed Chair has essentially accused the White House of trying to strong-arm monetary policy. Like China and India, Turkey has a deep-seated affinity to gold, and many Turkish investors increased their purchases of the metal as a hedge against soaring prices. It all added up! Back in October, when gold surpassed $4,000, the country’s central bank estimated that households’ total gold holdings had increased to $500 billion. Gold Stocks Still Have Room to Run |