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Perspective
By Rich Checkan
Last week, we saw the end of President Trump’s first 100 days in office. I have been reading and listening to various accounts of his first three months (and a little bit) in office.
They have been described as tumultuous, chaotic, successful, counterrevolutionary, divisive, healing, etc.
I think you get the picture. If you are a supporter of President Trump, they were wildly successful. If you oppose President Trump, they represent the end of Democracy.
My guess is the truth is somewhere in the middle.
But… there is absolutely no doubt… they were certainly some of the most eventful first hundred days of a presidency ever.
The Great Disruptor is changing things both at home and abroad.
Markets Balk
Given how completely the markets hate uncertainty, it is not surprising how poorly the equities markets have performed thus far this year.
Through the first four months of 2025…
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down over 5%.
• The S&P 500 was down over 6%.
• The Nasdaq was down over 10%.
Corporations and investors alike are trying to make sense of all the change. The most perplexing changes to forecast are what will be the result of the trade war between the U.S. and the rest of the world.
How long will tariffs remain in effect? What will be the impact on trade balances? Will this re-define trade relationships going forward? Will it drive a surge in domestic production, or will it choke off American growth?
At this point, nobody really knows where this all ends. The hopeful among us would like to believe this ends with re-negotiated trade deals all over the world with much better terms for the United States.
The pessimistic among us see this all ending in a worldwide depression the likes of which we have never seen.
Again, my guess is the truth is somewhere in the middle.
But… there is absolutely no doubt… things will not be the same when all is said and done.
The Big Winners
As you would imagine, the biggest benefactors of the first one hundred days of the Great Disruptor have been gold and silver.
Through the end of April, silver is up a very respectable 13%. But gold? Well, gold doubled that… up 26%.
Most of that is attributable to continued central bank buying. The central banks know more than anyone how badly they debased their currencies over the past couple of decades.
They inflated money supplies – the very definition of inflation – and rendered their currencies “worth-less.”
They have been net buyers of gold for the past 15 years. Over the past three years, they have been frantically buying gold… 1,000 metric tons each of the three previous years!
Why?
They cite geopolitical crisis, inflationary concerns, monetary instability, and dollar weaponization. And by the way, all of these are good reasons for you to own gold as well.
As a result, gold keeps making fresh highs.
I wanted to share how many new all-time highs gold achieved thus far this year, but it is too difficult to keep up with. I have been told it is somewhere between 12 and 25.
Again… my guess is the truth is somewhere in the middle.
But… there is absolutely no doubt… gold has made bunch of new all-time highs already this year.
Let us just agree it is a lot.
And… We Are Not Done Yet
I recently read an article from Kristen Altus of FoxBusiness. The gist of the article was a recent survey conducted by Experian where they found that nearly one in four respondents – 23% to be exact – said they currently have “unmanageable debt.”
Granted, they only surveyed 1,000 adults, but the number is truly shocking. The survey defines “unmanageable debt” as when an individual is forced to choose between debt payments and basic necessities.
Those of you who have followed this newsletter over the past few years know we have been talking about the difference between what you hear from Chairman Jerome Powell at press conferences and what we see and hear from main street Americans.
The situation is not a good one after years of inflation taking its toll. We and other dealers are seeing more people selling gold and silver to pay down debt or to cover a bill than I can remember at any other time in my thirty years in this industry.
One of the bloggers commenting on Kristen’s article wrote the following…
“I need everyone to wish me luck…
I have a meeting at the bank later, and if all goes well, I will be out of debt.
I’m so excited, I can barely put on my stocking mask.”
The joke is cute and funny. The situation is not.
The middle class, the backbone of our economy, is struggling to make ends meet. They are living paycheck to paycheck. They are one financial crisis away from serious financial trouble.
Gold Is How We Fix This
Given the environment, I cannot think of any better protection than gold.
If you have no gold when faced with these circumstances, the future is grim, and the nights are sleepless.
If you have gold when faced with these circumstances, you have the means to face the financial crisis you wish you never had, and you are most likely sleeping very peacefully at night.
My guess is the truth for all of us is somewhere in the middle.
If you have already prepared for these times with gold ownership, good for you. Make sure your allocations are up to date.
If you have not yet put the power of gold as wealth insurance to work in your portfolio, by all means, do so.
The dips in gold’s price we have seen recently are opportunities to buy well. They should be embraced.
Mark my words. Gold is going much higher. I have said this now for three years. I will continue to say it until the retail investor enters the gold market in a big way.
Since that has not happened yet, gold at all-time highs is dirt cheap!
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We stand ready to help you Keep What’s Yours!
P.S. Do not forget to join us next Wednesday, May 14th at 7PM EST for the next installment of our webinar series On the Move. Adrian Day and I will welcome our guest, Brent Johnson, the originator of “The Dollar Milkshake Theory.” See what Brent has to say below, then join us next Wednesday to hear more. Register here now.
—Rich Checkan
Editor's Note: Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital is the originator of The Dollar Milkshake Theory, an idea created to explain the role of the U.S. Dollar in the global monetary system. He will be the special guest for the next FREE On the Move webinar on May 14th, 2025. Register here.
Feature
Realpolitik and Statecraft Backed by Financial Warfare
By Brent Johnson
History rarely gives advance notice that it is laying down a marker.
Empires do not typically hold press conferences when they change the rules. And Superpowers do not typically send warnings before they weaponize the system they built.
And yet — America is telling the world exactly what is coming.
This is not the chaos of decline. This is not the flailing of a fading empire. This is the world’s dominant power consolidating its control — unapologetically, aggressively, and with the full weight of its economic engine behind it.
And the playbook is not subtle.
The Trump Administration has thrown out the ivory tower frameworks of globalization, free trade, and rules-based cooperation — and replaced them with something far older, simpler, and more ruthless:
Realpolitik and Statecraft backed by Financial Warfare.
Tariffs are not policy details — they are pressure points. Supply chains are not economic abstractions — they are leverage. And foreign governments and multinational CEOs are not partners — they are counterparties in a zero-sum contest for control.
Access to the American market — the largest, wealthiest, and most consumption-driven in human history — is no longer free.
It will come with a price.
But power moves like this do not come without consequences. Global capital is shifting. Markets are trembling. Foreign holders of U.S. assets — lulled for decades by predictability and privilege — are discovering that what the U.S. giveth, the U.S. can taketh away.
This is not about trade policy. And it is not about tariffs.
It is about power — who has it, who does not, and what happens when the world’s largest economy decides to stop pretending otherwise.
If you want to understand what comes next — the risks, the ruptures, the extraordinary unintended consequences — you will need to keep reading.
Because the damage that has already been done? That is just the beginning.
Even if President Trump were to abandon his expansive and aggressive policy agenda, the costs would not simply disappear.
Inflationary pressures would remain — fueled by an unsustainable deficit — while the tech-based trade war with China would continue to reinforce the broader trend of de-globalization.
An inability to deliver promised tax cuts would further erode confidence, and the resulting uncertainty could lead to a more profound loss of faith in both policy direction and market stability.
In many ways, Trump now has the most to lose by retreating.
Having launched his term wielding an economic sledgehammer, a sudden reversal would not be seen as pragmatism — it would be viewed as weakness.
Politically, it would be disastrous.
The chaos that would emerge from a partial or full withdrawal would likely exceed even the current turbulence roiling global markets.
A walk-back from the hardline policies implemented thus far would almost certainly signal the onset of a lame-duck presidency — a weakened administration, unable to advance its objectives.
Yet even if the policies were dialed back, the effects already set in motion cannot be undone. The damage — at least in the short term — has already been done.
The pain, already underway, will continue.
In sum, the Trump administration’s objectives are ambitious, uncompromising, and deeply interwoven. They include:
• Reducing the deficit while simultaneously cutting taxes,
• Increasing defense spending,
• Leveling the global trade playing field,
• Transforming the American revenue model,
• Diminishing China’s economic leverage,
• Pressuring Europe to bear more of its own defense burden,
• Reclaiming a larger share of global production capacity, and
• Imposing direct economic costs on any nation that resists this rebalancing.
There may be compromises along the way, negotiated adjustments or partial recalibrations. But for now, the Trump agenda is moving at full speed, driven by the urgency of the upcoming mid-term
elections. The costs and consequences of this momentum are no longer hypothetical — they are now a structural part of the landscape The only remaining question is one of scale: just how significant will these costs be?
What we already know is that rising volatility is one of them. Declining market valuations are another. Add to this supply chain disruptions, escalating inflationary pressures, and a rise in reciprocal tariffs accompanied by intensifying geopolitical tensions.
While the bond market may yet influence the shape and direction of what comes next, there is little doubt that investors and policymakers must brace for a period marked by elevated uncertainty, compressed valuations, a growing risk of both U.S. and global recession, and rising global defense expenditures — all of which will carry inflationary consequences.
Consumers, especially those heavily exposed to the equity markets and already facing leverage pressures, are unlikely to escape unscathed.
And beyond all this, there are still other tools — financial instruments, legal frameworks, institutional levers — that may soon be repurposed as mechanisms of economic weaponization.
But that, as they say, is a story for another day…
Editor's Note: Nomi Prins is a best-selling author, financial journalist, and former global investment banker. Prinsights Pulse is a new, free publication that’s curated by Nomi Prins. Designed for everyone from executives at large institutions to individuals seeking to enhance their financial understanding, this powerful newsletter provides essential insights into economic trends that affect us all. This article was originally published on April 15, 2025. Click here to discover more of Nomi's insights.
Hard Stuff
Here’s Why This Gold Run is Just Getting Started
By Nomi Prins
Gold keeps blasting through new highs. Last week, it closed at $3,237.97 per ounce – a new record. It’s lived up to its reputation as a safety net and a wealth-accumulating asset. Gold’s determined strength and velocity has surprised even seasoned investors.
If you’ve been wondering whether you missed the moment, please take a deep breath – this uptrend still has more room to run. That’s because we’re now entering the next phase of this mega-bull cycle.
Deeper structural forces are driving the current phase of gold, layered on top of investor flows. This isn’t just about inflation headlines or short-term rate speculation. It’s not a temporary blip. What’s unfolding is a structural shift. It’s about deep realignments: geopolitical fractures, tariff uncertainty that emerges week-to-week, the continued erosion of trust in fiat, and, ultimately, the re-emergence of gold as the ultimate reserve asset – all at once.
Understanding why this is the next phase of a larger gold bull supercycle is pivotal. Nearly a year ago, we forecast that gold would break above $3,000. Then, at Prinsights, we detailed that would happen in the early days of the Trump administration – well before the rest of the market caught on.
That’s now become the consensus. My former employer, Goldman Sachs, along with UBS, and Citi have all revised their outlooks upward, citing central bank demand, geopolitical risk, and growing investor rotation into real stores of value.
And according to the World Gold Council (WGC), global gold ETFs saw $8.6 billion in inflows in March alone, pushing Q1 totals to $21 billion—the second strongest quarter on record. Total global holdings now sit at 3,445 tonnes, the highest since May 2023. Assets under management hit a new record of $345 billion, up 28% for the quarter. North America and Europe have led the way, but Asia has continued to buy gold, punching above its weight.
These trends are growing and have more legs than past periods of gold buying.
As you can see in the chart from the WGC, the currently rally has yet to surpass even 2011 and 2020 levels.
One thing we’ve been watching closely: the steady accumulation of gold by central banks. They’re diversifying from the dollar and adding to strategic reserves that hedge away from the dollar and U.S. trade policy uncertainty. Recent history shows us that this policy, which took hold during the 2018 tariff period, has only accelerated now, as we’ve discussed before. That strategy won’t stop.
We continue to stand by our forecast: we believe gold will reach $3,800–$4,000 per ounce by the turn of the year and $5,000 within two years.
Now that, in recent weeks, gold has rallied both when markets sold off and when they recovered, outperforming equities and proving its role as a hedge not just against crisis, but against policy confusion. When tariffs were announced April 2, global markets lost over $5.8 trillion in value in the days that followed. Yet gold climbed. Equity markets lost even more. Gold then climbed further. Even as equities rebounded, gold kept climbing.
My Favorite Gold CEO Thought Leader
We’re not the only ones seeing this shift. One leading CEO of a junior miner we featured exclusively last year in our Premium issue and earlier this year, recently wrote me a note that framed it nicely. He described today’s gold market not as a reaction to headlines, but as the accelerated unwinding of a system that began in 1971, when the U.S. closed the gold window and launched the petrodollar era.
Since then, a strong dollar policy has tried to replace gold’s role with fiat and paper assets. But the 2008 crisis, the rise of QE, and now the weaponization of trade, currency and credit are reversing that.
"Gold is moving back to the center of the global financial system – as final settlement, as central bank ballast, and as a hedge against what’s coming," he told me.
We agree. The real moves are still ahead.
That brings us to the practical part: where and how to buy gold.
How to Build or Expand a Position
The gold landscape is more dynamic than it’s ever been.
Below are five approaches where each offer different tradeoffs:
1. Gold ETFs
If you want simplicity, liquidity, and accessibility, ETFs like iShares Gold Trust ($IAU) offer a strong option to consider. They’re backed by physical gold and can be held in a standard brokerage account. This is a clean entry point for investors who want exposure without dealing with storage or delivery. Just keep in mind that you're owning a share of a fund, not the metal itself.
2. Direct Purchase from Mints
For those who value physical control, national mints are a trusted source. The U.S. Mint and Austrian Mint (from where I shared my exclusive analysis) both offer gold bullion coins and bars. These are important because the products are backed by sovereign credibility and high purity standards. While you'll pay a premium over spot price, many investors see that as worthwhile for direct ownership, especially in uncertain times.
These purchases also allow for long-term storage strategies, whether personal or vault-based, and can be passed on generationally or sold back with relative ease. For some, there’s also a tactile reassurance in holding a tangible asset – it is something you can see, store, and secure on your own terms.
3. User-Friendly Gold Apps
Digital apps like Glint enable you to purchase fractional gold that’s fully allocated and securely stored. I’ve been using Glint for years. I find it to be one of the simplest ways to build a steady position in gold. For anyone looking to start with smaller amounts or build a position over time, it’s easy to use – and the fact that it’s tied to physical gold adds peace of mind.
It's also a good tool for those who want to dollar-cost average into gold with smaller amounts. The interface is user-friendly, and for those who want to link gold ownership to a card for spending – it’s an added flexibility.
4. Private Brokers with Strong Track Records
Asset Strategies International (ASI) is a family-owned business with decades of credibility in the physical metals space. I caught up with their co-Founder, Michael Checkan and President, Rich Checkan, at a conference only a couple weeks ago. Now, if Rich sounds familiar, that’s because we shared a Prinsights exclusive with Rich recently. His insights and hands-on approach resonate even more today. What you should know is that ASI offers segregated vaulting, delivery, and personal guidance.
5. Junior Miners
I’ve spent real time exploring and cultivating relationships in this space – walking sites, meeting with CEOs, digging into the operations of teams building solid value under the surface. Investing in junior miners is not for the faint of heart. But when the geology is real, and management knows what they’re doing, this is where some of the most asymmetric returns can be found.
Our latest model portfolio is located at the bottom of March’s Premium issue. It includes a junior miner we believe is especially well-positioned right now. It is one that’s asset-rich, overlooked, and underpriced.
Junior miners have been lagging their large-cap counterparts in this latest gold rally due to broader risk-off sentiment, which creates a pricing dislocation we see as an opportunity. We’ve broken down the full story for Premium readers and believe the timing is right to look more closely at it for those not in this position (yet).
Each of these five approaches offer a different way to gain exposure to gold, some more liquid, some more hands-on, and others tied to long-term upside through equity markets. They’re not mutually exclusive, and depending on your goals, you may find value in a combination.
Gold’s uptrend isn’t hype. It’s history returning. Only this time, it’s expanding, as gold’s future is being written now.
We’ll continue sharing company and sector-specific guidance with Prinsights Pulse Premium as this gold cycle matures – highlighting miners, mechanisms, and macro trends that matter.
Our goal for Premium readers is to deliver analysis on early trends – all with long-term investment outlooks in mind. That’s why, as this gold cycle is just starting to unfold, now is a great time to join our Premium community. Our recent Prinsights include exclusive interviews with mining CEOs along with actionable details on exciting public companies that most investors either miss or simply don’t have the time to analyze.
Editor's Note: Brett Eversole joined Stansberry Research in 2010. He is the lead editor and analyst for True Wealth, True Wealth Systems, and DailyWealth. This article was originally published in DailyWealth on April 10, 2025.
The Inside Story
We're Finally Seeing Gold's Overdue Outperformance
By Brett Eversole
Investors are panicking about U.S. stocks. Meanwhile, despite a minor sell-off in recent days, this often-forgotten asset is soaring...
It's up double digits on the year while U.S. stocks have dropped 15%.
Of course, I'm talking about gold. Investors haven't paid much attention to the metal in recent years. After all, why worry about a boring safe-haven asset when stocks are soaring?
Now, that dynamic has changed completely.
Gold isn't just holding its own... It recently skyrocketed, even as stocks collapsed to near bear market levels.
That has led to the biggest outperformance we've seen in years. And according to history, that's a good sign for gold and stocks.
Let me explain...
Gold Is Crushing Stocks... And That's Good for Both Assets
Gold was a quiet winner in 2024. The metal jumped 27%, beating the S&P 500 Index. But since stocks were rising, too, few investors were paying attention.
That's changing now... because gold has been rising while stocks fall.
Gold just catapulted about 15% higher in three months. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 dropped around 15% over the same time frame.
That means gold has outperformed stocks by about 30 percentage points over the past three months. That's a rare and impressive feat.
The chart below shows the three-month rolling return difference between the S&P 500 and gold. When the reading is below zero, stocks are outperforming. When it's above zero, gold is outperforming.
Take a look...
As the chart shows, we haven't seen gold outperform at this rate since 2020... In fact, gold has only hit that level a handful of times over the past 25 years.
To see what this might mean going forward, I ran the data back even further. We've seen 18 similar setups since 1972 – which means this tends to happen once every three years. But these cases have been darn bullish for gold going forward...
Gold has been a fantastic long-term investment ever since the gold standard ended in the early 1970s. The metal is up about 8% a year since then. But you could do better after setups like we have right now...
Similar setups led to 3.2% gains in six months and 15.3% gains in a year. That's about double the typical one-year return. And it means that the gold boom isn't likely to end anytime soon.
Now, the interesting thing is that the individual results varied a lot. There were some big winners and big losers. But gold was up a year later more than 60% of the time... So the odds are good that gold will keep rising.
Not only that, but this bullish setup for gold isn't a bad sign for stocks. The S&P 500 was up 11.1% a year after these extremes... which is a solid outperformance versus buying and holding over the same period.
So, this outperformance extreme tells us two things: 1) Gold can keep soaring from here... and 2) we shouldn't give up on U.S. stocks. They could reverse and get back on track soon as well.
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