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Gold Holding Above $1,900

Gold saw gains of about 3% last week as demand for Treasury bonds and the U.S. dollar weakened. Precious metals prices surged last week on the conflict between Israel and Hamas, as safe haven investors sought a hedge against the global uncertainty.

We expect the spot price boost incited by the crisis in Israel and Palestine will be relatively short-lived. Geopolitical rallies in gold don't tend to last long; safe haven buying only lasted about two months after the initial Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The long-term outlook for gold will be more severely impacted by news on the economy, as investors look for signals on the Federal Reserve’s next moves on monetary policy. 

The Fed has raised rates by 5.25 percentage points since March 2022. High rates are bearish for gold, making it less attractive as an alternate investment. However, the central bank held its benchmark interest rate at 5.25% to 5.50% in September. Most are betting that the Fed will keep its federal funds rate unchanged in November and December. A pause or a pivot in the interest rate hike cycle will be bullish for gold and potentially kickstart the next leg of the precious metals bull market.

It appears that the Federal Reserve does not have much room to tighten monetary policy, despite inflation remaining a sticky issue. 

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